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πͺοΈ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK β SATURDAY, APRIL 26, 2025
SPC Risk Level: SLIGHT (Level 2 of 5)
Valid through 7 AM CDT Sunday
π Major Cities in Risk Zones
π‘ SLIGHT Risk (774K people): Midland, TX, Roswell, NM, Clovis, NM, Hobbs, NM, Ardmore, OK
π’ MARGINAL Risk (40.9M people): New York, NY, Philadelphia, PA, Baltimore, MD, Washington, DC, Virginia Beach, VA
πͺοΈ Tornado Risk Zones
π€ 5% Tornado Risk: Roswell, NM, Hobbs, NM, Portales, NM, Artesia, NM, Lovington, NM
π’ 2% Tornado Risk: Shreveport, LA, Denton, TX, Midland, TX, Odessa, TX, San Angelo, TX
What the Percentages Mean
A 5% tornado risk means you have a 1 in 20 chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of you.
The 2% zone carries a lower but real tornado threat, especially with supercells later in the afternoon and evening.
π Overview
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon into tonight across eastern New Mexico and parts of west Texas.
The main threats are very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and damaging wind gustsβparticularly across southeastern NM and into west TX.
βοΈ Hazards Include
π§ Very large hail (up to 2″ or more possible)
πͺοΈ A couple of tornadoes, especially early evening in eastern NM
π¨ Isolated damaging wind gusts with upscale-growing clusters
π Timeline
π Mid to Late Afternoon (3β6 PM CDT): Supercells form along the dryline/front near southeast NM and the Permian Basin
π Evening (6β9 PM CDT): Greatest risk for tornadoes and giant hail across Roswell, Hobbs, and Lovington areas
π Overnight (9 PMβ1 AM CDT): Storms shift eastward, hail/wind threat continues into western TX
π Regional Notes
π€ Eastern NM (Roswell, Hobbs): Highest potential for supercells with large hail and isolated tornadoes
π‘ West TX (Midland, Odessa): Upscale growth possible, but still severe hail and damaging wind risks
π’ Northeast/Mid-Atlantic: Scattered storms possible with gusty winds, but limited severe threat
β οΈ Stay Weather-Aware
If you’re in or near Roswell, Hobbs, or Midland, conditions are favorable for severe supercells this evening.
Monitor weather alerts closely and be ready to shelter quickly if a warning is issued.
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